Tag: Antrim County

Antrim County election: did the County Clerk misinform the Oversight Committee about the identity of the software?

Summary

The unofficial results released by Antrim County at about 4am on November 4th were in error by thousands of votes. Regardless of whether the software was at fault in any way, it is elementary that, to try and understand what happened, it is necessary to know what particular application was being employed.

In her oral evidence to the Michigan Joint Oversight Committee, Sheryl Guy the Antrim County Clerk referred to it repeatedly as ‘the Election Night program’ (or similar), or perhaps generically as ‘the election night program’, and said that it had been supplied to the county by a company called Election Source.

In this article, I demonstrate that the software application is properly called EMS Results Tally & Reporting, which is one of the two main pillars of Dominion’s Democracy Suite.

Continue reading Antrim County election: did the County Clerk misinform the Oversight Committee about the identity of the software?

Antrim County election: right→left vote transfer in nine of the sixteen precincts.

In my last post, I described the aberrant nature of the unofficial election results released by the Antrim County Clerk at 4:09am on the morning of 4th November. 1 Compared to 2016, the Trump vote had collapsed in some precincts, even to single figures in four precincts, but increased in others; and extraordinary numbers of those who had voted in certain precincts had chosen not to cast a vote for President at all. 2

Amended results were released at 4:42pm 5th November. 3  Trump’s vote, expressed as a percentage of votes cast for Trump, Biden or the Libertarian candidate Jorgensen, had recovered from 36% to 57%. 4 In three precincts, however, Custer, Echo and Elk Townships, which he had won in 2016 by between 56 and 69%, he still trailed behind Biden with between 40 and 42% (in all tables, the suffix ‘1’ refers to the results of 4th November, ‘2’ to those of 5th November, and ‘3’ to those of 21st November):

Continue reading Antrim County election: right→left vote transfer in nine of the sixteen precincts.

Notes:

  1. See Exhibit C, Bailey complaint. ↩
  2. Precinct-level data for 2016 was obtained from here. (It may perhaps be helpful to someone to observe that I was able to open the large .csv file with a text editor, but not with spreadsheet software.) ↩
  3. See Exhibit D, Bailey complaint. ↩
  4. The reasons for choosing this denominator are a) to enable a comparison with the 2016 results, for which I don’t have precinct level data for number of ballots cast, while b) saving some time by omitting the minor candidates. ↩

Antrim County election: was the results correction completed on 5 November at 4pm, or 6 November at 10pm?

In 2016, Donald Trump won 62% of the vote in Antrim County Michigan, with Hillary Clinton on 32.5%, and the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson on 3.4%:

Trump won by large margins in every precinct, Clinton’s highest relative vote being in Torch Lake Township, where she lost by 489 votes to 324: 1

According to unofficial results released at 4:09 am on 4 November 2020, however, the situation had been dramatically reversed, with Biden winning 7,769 votes, against Trump’s 4,509, and the Libertarian candidate Jorgensen’s 93 (Exhibit 3, Complaint of William Bailey):

While the overall swing would itself would have been hard to understand, with nothing comparable occurring anywhere else in the United States (to my knowledge), the detailed precinct-level results were vastly more anomalous still, with Trump’s vote increasing in five precincts, but collapsing in nine precincts, even into single figures in four of them:

Continue reading Antrim County election: was the results correction completed on 5 November at 4pm, or 6 November at 10pm?

Notes:

  1. Data from https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LYWX3D (It may perhaps be helpful to someone to observe that I was able to open the large .csv file with a text editor, but not with spreadsheet software.) ↩