Month: December 2020

Antrim County election: right→left vote transfer in nine of the sixteen precincts.

In my last post, I described the aberrant nature of the unofficial election results released by the Antrim County Clerk at 4:09am on the morning of 4th November. 1 Compared to 2016, the Trump vote had collapsed in some precincts, even to single figures in four precincts, but increased in others; and extraordinary numbers of those who had voted in certain precincts had chosen not to cast a vote for President at all. 2

Amended results were released at 4:42pm 5th November. 3  Trump’s vote, expressed as a percentage of votes cast for Trump, Biden or the Libertarian candidate Jorgensen, had recovered from 36% to 57%. 4 In three precincts, however, Custer, Echo and Elk Townships, which he had won in 2016 by between 56 and 69%, he still trailed behind Biden with between 40 and 42% (in all tables, the suffix ‘1’ refers to the results of 4th November, ‘2’ to those of 5th November, and ‘3’ to those of 21st November):

Continue reading Antrim County election: right→left vote transfer in nine of the sixteen precincts.

Notes:

  1. See Exhibit C, Bailey complaint. ↩
  2. Precinct-level data for 2016 was obtained from here. (It may perhaps be helpful to someone to observe that I was able to open the large .csv file with a text editor, but not with spreadsheet software.) ↩
  3. See Exhibit D, Bailey complaint. ↩
  4. The reasons for choosing this denominator are a) to enable a comparison with the 2016 results, for which I don’t have precinct level data for number of ballots cast, while b) saving some time by omitting the minor candidates. ↩

Antrim County election: was the results correction completed on 5 November at 4pm, or 6 November at 10pm?

In 2016, Donald Trump won 62% of the vote in Antrim County Michigan, with Hillary Clinton on 32.5%, and the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson on 3.4%:

Trump won by large margins in every precinct, Clinton’s highest relative vote being in Torch Lake Township, where she lost by 489 votes to 324: 1

According to unofficial results released at 4:09 am on 4 November 2020, however, the situation had been dramatically reversed, with Biden winning 7,769 votes, against Trump’s 4,509, and the Libertarian candidate Jorgensen’s 93 (Exhibit 3, Complaint of William Bailey):

While the overall swing would itself would have been hard to understand, with nothing comparable occurring anywhere else in the United States (to my knowledge), the detailed precinct-level results were vastly more anomalous still, with Trump’s vote increasing in five precincts, but collapsing in nine precincts, even into single figures in four of them:

Continue reading Antrim County election: was the results correction completed on 5 November at 4pm, or 6 November at 10pm?

Notes:

  1. Data from https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LYWX3D (It may perhaps be helpful to someone to observe that I was able to open the large .csv file with a text editor, but not with spreadsheet software.) ↩